Navy Pilot Puts 85% Odds On Hidden UFO Craft

A retired Navy pilot has placed a number on one of the longest running claims in this field. Asked whether the United States physically holds recovered craft, Ryan Graves said his confidence sits at 80%-85%, built from years of partial conversations inside the defense world. Days later, the House of Representatives adopted an amendment that would create a Senate-confirmed board with subpoena power over UAP records and would extend disclosure requirements to government contractors, which is the exact place Graves suggests such material would sit. Between those two developments, the Pentagon All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office released its Fiscal Year 2025 report, nine months past its legal deadline, stating there is no evidence that any government office or private organization has recovered anything at all.

https://youtu.be/J7KmyQivCkk

According to the AARO report, the office took in 319 new cases between June 2, 2024 and May 30, 2025, bringing total holdings to 1,870. Of those, 274 came from the air domain and 44 from space, leaving a single maritime report for the entire year. AARO resolved 114 of the new cases and closed 256 older ones, for 370 resolutions total, all attributed to balloons, drones, birds, aircraft, satellites, one rocket launch and one manned jet pack. Another 191 went into the active archive, a category reserved not for cases that were explained but for cases where the office cannot determine whether what was described matches natural phenomena or known technology. Nine more went to intelligence partners and technical specialists.

Incoming volume fell sharply, down from 757 reports the previous year. The report credits satellites for much of that drop. Of the 44 space domain cases, none originated from a space-based sensor. Reference to the report shows 42 came from civilian pilots reporting through the Federal Aviation Administration and two from ground-based sensors run by United States Space Command, with all of them assessed through three-dimensional modeling as sunlight reflecting off satellite surfaces.

Ryan Graves

Every one of those numbers depends on pilots filing reports. Speaking on the Dr. Phil podcast, Graves estimated that five percent is a generous figure, and that each pilot who comes forward represents 10- 15 who do not. The mechanism is professional risk, since reporting a sighting to an aerospace medical examiner can trigger an investigation period of up to twelve months, which for a commercial pilot means 12 months without pay.

Graves also argues the deeper problem is what is never captured. According to his account, every infrared clip released by the Pentagon was cued by a radar system first, and that radar holds the speed, altitude, heading, track duration and object count that would settle these cases. He says he has seen no sign that radar or classified sensor data is entering the current releases at all.

The report itself acknowledges new cases logged near sensitive military installations, stating some written accounts described performance exceeding what is currently known within that domain, then noting that no technical data accompanied those reports.

On July 22, per the congressional press release, the House adopted Eric Burlison’s UAP Disclosure Act into the Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act. It would create a permanent UAP Records Collection at the National Archives, force agencies onto a statutory transmission timeline, establish an independent review board with subpoena authority, and extend disclosure requirements to covered contractors. Former AARO director Sean Kirkpatrick previously argued that portion was redundant because his office already performed that function. Versions of this bill have now been blocked four separate times.

Sources

Burlison, E. (2026, July 22). House adopts Burlison amendment establishing UAP disclosure framework. Office of U.S. Representative Eric Burlison. https://burlison.house.gov/media/press-releases/house-adopts-burlison-amendment-establishing-uap-disclosure-framework

Hanks, M. (2026, July 23). AARO’s latest UAP report finds no evidence of exotic technology, but mysteries remain. The Debrief. https://thedebrief.org/aaros-latest-uap-report-finds-no-evidence-of-exotic-technology-but-mysteries-remain/

The Dr. Phil Podcast. (2026, July 23). Eyes in skies: A former fighter pilot’s encounter with UAPs [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVyMTx_R3P4